As many as 60,000 businesses could be impacted by the gas supply shortfall forecast to hit Victoria as soon as next year, the GMC Connect forum heard on Tuesday.
A Viva Energy presentation on plans for a Gas Terminal in Geelong revealed that residential gas usage has increased in the past couple of years, with more than 2.2 million households connected to natural gas.
Transitioning these homes and businesses to alternative energies is difficult, potentially expensive or impossible and can’t happen overnight, so gas will be needed as a critical part of Victoria’s energy mix for many years to come.
Viva Energy’s Gas Terminal Project lead Laura Bishop said peak day gas shortfalls are forecast as early as the winter of 2025, with the supply shortfall growing into seasonal shortages. Structural gas supply shortages forecast for 2028 will require an alternative supply of gas.
Viva Energy’s proposed regasification terminal adjacent to the Geelong Refinery is currently going through a final approvals process through the exhibition of a Supplementary Statement which is now open for public comment.
Subject to the project receiving the required regulatory approvals this year, and Viva Energy’s ability to secure sufficient commercial offtake arrangements to take a Final Investment Decision (FID), construction of the terminal could commence in 2026.
The terminal and associated infrastructure will take two years to construct which would see first gas by winter 2028 when the structural shortfalls of gas are predicted.
Other benefits of the proposed Geelong site include:
- The terminal is located next to the refinery, inside a busy working port and industrial area;
- It is close to the Victorian gas pipeline system, requiring only a short 7km pipeline from the terminal;
- The terminal and associated pipeline would not be located in a Ramsar wetlands site; and
- The terminal will have unique synergies with the refinery through seawater exchange.
The development of a gas import terminal is aligned with government policies, including the Federal Government’s Future Gas Strategy and Future Made in Australia policy, as well as the Victorian Government’s Gas Substitution Roadmap. These policies all recognise the need for gas and that new infrastructure is needed to supply gas while the energy transition is underway, and we begin to transition away from it.
To find out more or to make submission, go to Engage Victoria: https://engage.vic.gov.au/viva-gas-terminal-IAC